鬼月來臨,柬埔寨房地產也來了幾個震撼市場的新聞,包含價格過高,當地人無法負擔,供過於求等等。之前各開發商都還再睜眼說瞎話,現在連CBRE和Knight Frank都這樣表示了,開發商的布局應該也不攻自破了。
簡單來說,柬埔寨公寓項目開發,不但進入了供過於求的狀況,還有可能因為之前價格訂的過高,因為難以脫手轉賣當地人,進而開始出現貶值趨勢。
1.公寓訂價過高
When condo units are priced from $3,000 to $3,500 per square metre, it is at least twice as much as an ordinary Cambodian’s annual income…. “The construction cost for shop houses are only from $120 to $150 per square metre, so developers who sell their condo units from $3,000 to $3,500 per square metre are making a huge amount of money.”…Touch Samnang, vice president of Overseas Cambodian Investment Corporation (OCIC), said the construction costs for condos in Phnom Penh are generally around $350 to $800 per square metre, depending on the quality and the type of condos that are built.
Condo developers reaping in hefty profits
金邊市區內部的公寓項目,平均價大約在$3,000 -$3,500 /平米,這個可說是當地中產階級一整年的薪資收入,更不用說那些開價開到$4,000以上的建案,應該只有外國買家玩得起。需要注意的是,目前商鋪(Shop Hous) 的建造成本為$120 – $150,公寓平均則在 $350 – $800,成本和賣價一比較,就可以知道開發商中間的利潤有多麼驚人。說賣一間賺兩間都不嫌過份。
“Condos should be priced from $1,200 to $1,500. That’s an affordable price [when] compared to people’s income,” she said. When asked if condo units that are priced from $3,000 to $3,500 per square metre are too high compared to people’s annual income, Nhim said the price is relatively high compared to their income: “Who would be able to afford the units besides foreign investors and a few rich people in Cambodia?”
Condo developers reaping in hefty profits
如果以當地人能負擔的水準來看,公寓售價應該要在$1,200 – $1,500 之間,才能讓當地的中產階級加入這個你丟我撿的遊戲中。但是當開價已經卡在$3,000上下,建案也已經賣了一些,建商是無法在賣到一半的時後降價求售的。面臨騎虎難下的窘境之下,如果沒有外國買家和那1% 的柬埔寨有錢人以外的人加入戰局,還有柬埔寨的房市,勢必要進入盤整下修的階段了。
2. 外國買家減少
As such, because the demand from foreign investors has been decreasing in the past half year, developers are now required to brainstorm for innovative means of offering their products as a result of the market now being increasingly delicate in terms of pricing.
Prominent property developers downplay sliding real estate outlook
在過去半年,國際買家數量逐年減少,開發商也只能在價格上重新審視,只求完售。不過還是有些建案不死心,不斷推出像是保證出租,租金可高達每年6.5%報酬率,開發商可以買回公寓等等方案,甚至給出10% – 20%的大折扣種種跡象,可以看出開發商有著強大的庫存壓力。
3.Knight Frank 國際連鎖地產公司表示,柬埔寨金邊的公寓市場即將出現問題。
到2020年,柬埔寨公寓的供應量,將會是2016年的723.5%,也就是會有接近3萬套單位進入市場,造成所謂供應超剩的情況 (imminent glut in the residential sector)。那些一直說現在柬埔寨房市非常健康沒有疑慮的開發商和仲介,應該都是選擇對於這個數據視而不見,只想著完售,不顧買家的後續轉售事宜。
![graphic-info-3](https://louisiskiller.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/graphic-info-3.jpg?w=599)
@Knight Frank 2016 Report
The serviced apartment sector is also facing pressure, with rental prices showing a 7.2 per cent decline, “due to increasing competition from the completion of more serviced apartment and condominium projects.”…he report predicts that the supply of office space will rise by 80 per cent by 2020, with available retail space rising by 209 per cent in the same period… hotel sector is seeing looming troubles. Knight Frank says that by 2020, there will be a 40.5 per cent increase in hotel rooms. Coupled with competition from the ever-expanding boutique hotel sector, occupancy rates have generally remained around 50 per cent for five-star hotels.
Report confirms residential oversupply
這股旋風除了掃到公寓項目以外,連同飯店式管理公寓,辦公室,商鋪,旅館等等,都逐漸出現供過於求的狀況,導致租金開始面臨強大競爭,出現下調的趨勢,跟上個季度比較,飯店式管理公寓租金已經將低了7.2%,辦公室將增加80%的供應量,商鋪的供應量將增加209%,旅館因為有太多選擇,每間旅館的平均入住率只有50%左右。
在這樣的狀況下,Knight Frank建議,投資者要走長期投資。目前金邊的狀況,並不適合短跑。硬要打短跑的話,可能會受天譴的。同時,當國際買家的數量減少,但建案供應增加,市場就會變成買方市場,那價格就會是完售的關鍵了。
“We advise any investor that they need to take a long-term view as opposed to short-term speculation.”…“Developers can no longer just build a project and expect to achieve healthy sales rates; the demand from foreign investors has been declining during the past six months and developers need to be more innovative in terms of the products they are offering, with the market now more price sensitive.”
Report confirms residential oversupply
因此,在這個時間點,公寓本身的管理,地點,品質,價位,就變得很重要。只有優質的公寓才能存活下來,其他還沒有蓋好的,40%的建商採取拖延戰術,將完工日往後移,避開大量單位釋出的時間點。
Going off historical data, Wheble told Post Property that up to 40 per cent per annum of projected unit completions rolls over into subsequent years due to delays in construction.
Report confirms residential oversupply
接下來會如何發展呢? 我們也只能多觀察了。